1. Company Profile
Delta Djakarta Tbk is one of the leading and oldest manufacturer and distributor of some of the best beer brands in the world, such as Anker, Carlsberg, San Miguel, and Kuda Putih trademarks. In
Right now, Delta Djakarta running its business from the headquarters Jl. Inspeksi Tarum Barat-Tambun, Bekasi, West Java –
2. Analysis of Company Stock
2. a. Stock Chart
2. b. Analysis of the Stock Chart
The graphic above shows the movement of stock prices of Delta Djakarta Tbk during January 2, 2008 until September 30, 2009 which analyze daily. The stock prices can be an indicator of market trend. It means that the movement above describes market condition at one moment, whether it is active or dull. There are two components of the graphic that will be discussed: Volume and High Low Close Prices.
From January 2, 2008 until April 29, 2008 the price is Rp 16.000,- / share, and is remain unchanged. There is only several transaction occurred during that period. Delta
The first transaction on 2008 was made on February 20, which consist of 6 lot (1 lot = 500 shares), followed by second transaction which was made on April 16, which consist of 3 lot.
In the end of April 2008, Delta Djakarta Tbk announced the growth of net income for 2008 9.44% into 51.8 billions from the year 2007 with the amount of 47.33 billions. While the volume of minimum selling is increasing 7% from last year. Management of Delta Djakarta Tbk also optimist announced to public that the target will be reached, because in the first three months the selling is reaching Rp 221 billions. That number is increase up to 50.35% from the same period in last year (Rp 147 billions). The optimism also supported by the fact that the exchange of rupiah currency to other currencies is decreasing, so that the export selling is increasing.
From the data above, Delta stock prices increase Rp 2.000,- become Rp 18.000,- / share. This increasing caused the transaction, included in 3 lots. The stockholders tend to sell their stocks when the price goes up. While people that haven’t own the stock tends to buy the stock with the hope that the stock prices will increase continually. That’s why in the beginning of May, the volume of the transaction started to increase (21 lots were transacted). On May 2, the low price were Rp. 16.000,- while the high price reach Rp 18.000,-. With these increasing price, people do the transaction (buy and sell) with the hope to gain profit. People analyze every piece of data on a company and say how much a 'fair price' is for it. If it’s trading above this price and people own stock then sell, if it’s trading below this price then buy. That's it in very simple on gaining profit terms.
The issue of this price of the company capturing a lot of attention of the investor and finally resulted on the number of lots being transacted increase constantly on May 5 (150 lots). But on the May 6, the high prices decrease to Rp. 17.000,- while the low prices increase to Rp. 16.600,-, these condition resulted on volume stock being transacted decrease constantly.
During May 2008, the stock price level of Delta Djakarta was going up. It probably happens because of the issue that Delta Djakarta will distribute the dividend on June 16, 2008 toward its stockholders which listed on the stockholders list on June 2. Delta
In the middle of June 08 until the end of July 08, there were no significant changes both in volumes and prices. It probably happen because the stock prices increase to Rp 22.000,-/shares, and has no difference in high low close price. This condition is not interesting enough for the investor to invest their money to the Delta Djakarta Stock.
The net profit of Delta Djakarta Tbk during the first six months of 2008 is Rp 34,36 billions. This number increase until 79.8% compare to from the same period year 2007 (Rp 19,11 billions). This significant growth also supported by the increase of net sales about 46.3% into Rp 532,55 billions from Rp 363,92 billions. The progress of Delta Djakarta result on the increase of earning per share from Rp 1.194,- to Rp 2.146,-. This increasing resulting a lot of demand from public, and because a lot demand of the stocks, the price is going up during August 2008.
From middle of November 2008 until middle of March 2009, the stock price level of Delta Djakarta was remaining the same, stable, and unchanged. This is prove that the Company doesn’t affected by the global crisis which was started on middle 2007 and was finally felt by Indonesia in the middle of 2008 till 2009.
On April 2009, Delta Djakarta announced the growth of net income is 5% compare to 2008. While the net sales is being targeted to reach Rp 1,3 trillion till the end of the year 2009 with the profit Rp 104 billions. Marketing Manager DLTA Ronny Titiheruw said that the beer industry last year (2008) increasing by 20% from the year before (2007). That’s why in 2009, Delta Djakarta set the target to growth minimum 5%. On the other hand, DLTA will distributed the dividend for year 2008 with the amount of Rp 3.500,- / share. Starting from this period, the stock price of Delta Djakarta keep increasing from the amount of Rp 25.000,- until Rp 45.000,- (On May 27, 2008). The transactions in between those periods were really varied, and we can see that from the graphic. Compare to the period before, the transaction between April 2009 till May 27, 2009 were pretty much alive, and investor are interested to the DLTA stock, even though is not much, because of the high price per share is relatively expensive compare to the other company that may only cost Rp 1.000,- or Rp 5.000,- per shares..
On August 17, 2009, Delta Djakarta has a significant increasing volume of transaction (110 lots). It probably happened because of increase in the high price were Rp. 52.000,- while the low price reach Rp 49.000,-. With these increasing price, people do the transaction (buy and sell) with the hope to gain profit. People analyze every piece of data on a company and say how much a 'fair price' is for it. If it’s trading above this price and people own stock then sell, if it’s trading below this price then buy.
2. c. The Average, Standard Deviation, Highest and Lowest
2. d. Analysis of the Average, Standard deviation, Highest and Lowest result
1.Average
In general terms the idea is that both a stock's high and low prices are temporary and that a stock's price will tend to have an average price over time. When the current market price is less than the average price, the stock is considered attractive for purchase, with the expectation that the price will rise. When the current market price is above the average price, the market price is expected to fall. In other words, deviations from the average price are expected to revert to the average.
From the data shows that the average price of stock of Delta Djakarta Tbk n the almost 2 years between January 1 2008 until September 30 2008 for the high price of stock is Rp. 25,219.81777. From The data between January 2 2008 until April 2 2009 shows that the price of stock is less than average price, it mean that the stocks are considered for purchase. But in the April 3 2009 until September 30 2009 the price of stock is above the average price, that’s mean the market price is expected to fall down.
For the low price of stock, the average price is Rp. 25,174.71526. At 2 January 2008 until 2 April 2009 Delta Djakarta has a good performance in selling their stock because in that moments the price of stock is less than average price, but at April 3 2009 until September 30 2009 Delta Djakarta got their bad performance because in this period the price of stock is above the average price is means that the market stock price of Delta Djakarta is falling down in this period.
The average price of close price Delta Djakarta stock is Rp. 25,196.12756. At January 2 2008 until April 2 2009 Delta Djakarta got their best performance on selling stock because the price of the stock in this period is upper the average price. But unfortunately, at April 3 2009 until September 30 2009 Delta Djakarta face the problem that the price of stock is above the average price which means that the stock will difficult to selling and got fall down in market price.
The last is average volume of Delta Djakarta stock; from the data we calculate that the average volume is 1.496583144. It means that on average in one day Delta Djakarta have 1 or 2 volume in selling stock. At May 5 2008, Delta Djakarta have a good performance in selling stock because in this date was 150 transactions happens.
2. Standard Deviation
In finance, standard deviation is applied to the annual rate of return of an investment to measure the investment's volatility. Standard deviation is also known as historical volatility and is used by investors as a gauge for the amount of expected volatility. Standard Deviation is a statistical measurement that sheds light on historical volatility.
The standard deviation is often used by investors to measure the risk of a stock or a stock portfolio. The basic idea is that the standard deviation is a measure of volatility: the more a stock's returns vary from the stock's average return, the more volatile the stock.
The larger the difference between the closing prices and the average price, the higher the standard deviation will be and the higher the volatility. The closer the closing prices are to the average price, the lower the standard deviation and the lower the volatility. From all the data, the high level price (10490.66748) is the highest one. From the volume level, we can see the standard deviation have high volatility 9.273833281 than average 1.496583144. Because of the standard deviation is very high, there is the great dispersion in volume or we can say volume has high volatility.
Delta
3. Highest and Lowest Analysis
Volume
On May 5, 2008 the price in low and close is Rp16.000,- and it’s become the lowest price. But, the issue of this price of the company capturing a lot of attention of the investor and finally resulted on the number of lots being transacted increase constantly (150 lots) and it makes on May 5, 2008 reach the highest in volume.
The lowest volume is 0. Delta Djakarta stock often get this number (0) which means that DLTA had not much transaction during the period, because the company stock prices is flat, there were no difference of price during that period, that’s why investor tends not to be interesting to invest their money to Delta Djakarta stocks, because there are no progress. This were happen on January 2, 2008 -April 29, 2008, June 4, 2008 -July 20, 2008, and November 11, 2008- March 17,2009
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High and Low Stock Prices
The highest of stock price is Rp. 52.000,- per shares during September 27, 2009 until September 30, 2009 . It probably because Delta Djakarta has proved the growth of net income is 5% compare to 2008. While the net sales is being targeted to reach Rp 1,3 trillion till the end of the year 2009 with the profit Rp 104 billions. This highest price also supported by the extreme lot being transacted on September 16, 2009. The price of company could be increase because a lot of demands were occurred.
From January 2, 2008 until April 29, 2008 become the lowest price in high price that is Rp16.000,-/share, and is remain unchanged. Delta
Closing Price
The different between the highest price and the lowest price is relatively high, it can be seen by observe the highest closing price per shares is Rp 52.000,- reached on September 24, 2009 until September 30, 2009. While the lowest closing price is Rp 16.000,- reached on January 2, 2008 until April 29, 2008. The different shows that the company has high risk, because of its unpredictable and wide changes.
4. Conclusion
Based on the information of its stock during January 2, 2009 – September 20, 2009, Delta Djakarta Tbk. has a good progress. It stocks prices is increasing as well as the volume of transaction in the recent period, compared from the historical past. During January 2008 – April 2008, the stock prices were unchanged (Rp 16.000,-/shares), neither nor the volume (zero volume). This means that Delta Djakarta was not interesting enough to be invested.
At the beginning of May 2008, Delta Djakarta has a significant progress. Its volume increase up to 150 lots, and its price increase up to Rp 17.200,-/ shares. The increase both in volume and prices means that Delta Djakarta has a good performance in the stock market. This increase also might be supported by the statement that Delta Djakarta was going to distribute the dividend toward its stockholders on June 2008.
The stock prices were increase and decrease not significantly depending on the stock market progress and price list during May 2008 till beginning of November 2008, before actually reach the constant on price Rp 20.000,-/shares during end of November 2008 – beginning March 2009. The volume during this period was zero; means that company had no transaction. This might be cause by the increase of prices that being too expensive and might be the effect of global crisis that felt in
There was a good progress because of the prices that keep increasing during end of March 2009- until June 2009. This increasing of price is followed by the increasing of volume being transaction as well. On this point, Delta Djakarta is able to performance well, that’s why although its stock prices keep increasing, the demand for this stock also increasing.
The prices were going down a little bit during June 14- June 24, 2009, but then it keep increasing again from the end of June 2009 till the September 2009. It follows by significant volume (110 lots) in middle of September. From the fact above, we can say that the company has a good progress seeing from the graphical and its historical data.
Seeing from the standard deviation analysis, the data are also dispersed, which means have high volatilities. High volatilities describes that the stock prices have high possibilities to change, this changing prices seeing a risky condition for the stockholder, because of the very vary prices (unstable) – it could be really high, or really down. But on the other hand, this changing price also could be an opportunity for the stockholders to gain profit, by use the difference or change of those prices.
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